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Dr. Seth Shostak, Senior Astronomer at the SETI Institute in California has authored or co-authored a trio of books to date about life in the universe in general and extraterrestrial intelligence in particular. His trilogy and my abbreviations for them throughout this essay are as follows.
Sharing the Universe (STU)
Cosmic Company (CC)
Confessions of an Alien Hunter (CAH)
For complete bibliographic details, see at bottom.
While Dr. Shostak's book trilogy is not the sum total of his opinions on the UFO phenomena, they no doubt represent a solid representation of his UFO philosophy, and since these tomes are readily accessible to the general public, they form as good a source as any.
This is where Dr. Shostak and I start off agreeing with each other. Firstly, there exist a reasonable number of advanced extraterrestrial civilizations out in our Milky Way Galaxy. For Dr. Shostak to believe otherwise would make a farce of his chosen profession as a traditional SETI (Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence) scientist.
Secondly, we both would agree that there is no physical law (s), relationship (s) or principle (s) in physics that prohibit interstellar travel and journeys from one solar system to another solar system.
Thirdly, and this is where we might start diverging, given the age of the Milky Way Galaxy and the time available for civilizations to rise and achieve a status of 'boldly going' (in person or via artificially intelligent robotic surrogates), it's a near certainty that ET has been in our local neck of the cosmic woods and that we (Planet Earth with biosphere) has been noted and logged in at least one ET database, perhaps many, especially if there's such a thing as a cosmic version of the Internet . That's the famous or infamous "where is everybody" Fermi Paradox. That said, I maintain that once here, and once we (Planet Earth) was discovered, their presence, their monitoring, even if a token one, would be ongoing, all the more so when our biosphere got really interesting with the arrival of multi -cellular land-lubbers – terrestrial critters.
Dr. Shostak asks the question (STU) "are we really that interesting" such that aliens would pay so much attention to our little cosmic neck of the woods. He suggests that that scenario is highly doubtful. I say "yes" because biospheres are going to be relatively rare; multi-cellular biospheres rarer still and biospheres with intelligent life rarer still. Biospheres are interesting; rarity is interesting; therefore Planet Earth in the relatively recent here and now is interesting.
Public Opinion Polls & UFOs (STU, CC, CAH)
Dr. Shostak makes a point of noting that public opinion poll after public opinion poll after public opinion poll, across the board, rich or poor, male or female, elderly or young, black or white, Ph.D. or high school dropout, atheistic or Catholic, a healthy percentage of the population believe that there is a connection between ET and UFOs. He's probably muttering under his breath something like 'stupid people' but really real physical scientists know better – or most of them anyway. He tends to put these polls down to an 'it's time' factor. World War Two and the Cold War and the dawning of the Space Age are all involved with relatively high-tech aeronautical and astronautical stuff from ICBMs that carry nuclear payloads to the U-2 to spy satellites to Sputnik and Telstar to the Space Shuttle to Moon landings, etc. Since roughly the WWII era, we're talking about the 'high ground' that has us all interested in and 'watching the skies'. The popularity of sci-fi, especially aliens and alien invasions did not hurt and the concept of extraterrestrials is just so damn interesting. Dr. Shostak got hooked on aliens too; otherwise he'd still be doing routine radio astronomy research on galaxies. So we all got space and aliens on the noggin.
But the conclusion I draw is that where there's smoke, there's at least smoke, and probably fire. In other words, there must be something really suggestive in the data that's been presented over the past six decades to support this UFO / ET connection; that lends people to lean towards this conclusion and not some other like maybe UFOs represent human time travelers from our future or terrorist organizations that have been putting hallucinogenic substances in our water supply.
Public Opinion Polls & Alien Abductions (CC)
Based on public surveys, millions upon millions of otherwise apparently normal and sane people believe that they have been abducted by extraterrestrials, usually the 'Greys'. I get the impression that Dr. Shostak kind of rolls his eyeballs at that subject and those findings. He probably mutters some more about 'silly people' or gullible people. However, IMHO, no matter how you slice and dice those findings, what a fascinating area for scientists to research. [See also: Abductions]
Public Opinion Polls & Government Cover-ups / Censorship of UFOs (STU)
Dr. Shostak also notes that these same public opinion polls note that Americans (in this case) are highly suspicious of officialdom claims that there's nothing to the UFO story at all. It's all just hoaxes and misidentifications albeit honest misidentifications. There is no UFO / ET connection. The public widely suspect that the powers-that-be are not being 100% aboveboard on the issue. Shostak might silently mumble 'silly humans', but I have a different conclusion, since I say who can blame Joe and Mary Citizen for being suspicious of officialdom's word given the track record of secret projects (like the U-2) and covert operations ( incursions into other countries during the Vietnam War) and surveillance (NSA) and dozens of other case histories that have come to light (Nixon and Watergate comes to mind here).
If there is a UFO / ET connection and the powers-that-be know this, that information would be classified (therefore by definition censored from the public or in other words covered-up). Then too, every citizen knows, and respects, that proper authorities like the Defense Department and the various diplomatic agencies and departments have and need to keep some stuff classified on a need-to-know basis. It's sometimes called being economical with the truth. Anyone who believes that any administration from any country at any time tells their people the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth is living in cloud cuckoo land. Those opinion poll results are therefore hardly surprising.
But Dr. Shostak appears to have a real bee in his bonnet over the advocates that insist or at least claim that there's a UFO cover-up or censorship. Dr. Shostak insists that a really real conspiracy would have to be global in nature and given the diversity of nations and leaderships and political systems and cultures, over six plus decades that's as likely as winning lotto ten times in a row. Unfortunately, the logic does not follow. Those relatively few, perhaps even one nation in the know, are not only not going to share that info with their own great unwashed who have no need to know, but they are not going to share that info with any other nation either, friend or foe.
It's not the notion that ET is here that's being censored * but that they (the USA for example) have in their possession ET technologies of potential military value, and you know how the military likes to protect its secrets, as in Area 51 (Groom Lake, Nevada) which is sign posted for all to see with "No Trespassing" signs that further warn you that "Use of Deadly Force is Authorized" (ie – shoot to kill) for those who do enter illegally. Armed guards are visible from outside the perimeter fence as are various electronic surveillance gizmos. The US Government covered up the very existence of this top secret Groom Lake military facility (despite it being common knowledge to the relatively few locals in the area) for decades until commercial satellite photographs made the cover-up of its existence untenable and a farce. Area 51's existence is now acknowledged by officialdom. That cover-up aside, in general, just try to enter any restricted military area and see how quick-smart you are dealt with.
By analogy, the Nuclear Club does not tell its citizens how to obtain nuclear weapons grade materials and how to build nuclear weapons and neither do they share these technologies with other countries, friend or foe. They do not share with each other since today's friend or ally – Russia in WWII for example – could be tomorrows foe. You figure things out for yourself.
Just because UFOs are seen worldwide does not mean each and every government has the Smoking Gun evidence, the sort of slab-in-the-lab evidence that Dr. Shostak craves. Most countries do not have that sort of proof that enables them to go public that ET is here, even if they wanted to. Most, maybe nearly all countries need the corpse they do not have. Both Uganda (1971) and Grenada (1977) tried that via the United Nations and got nowhere.
Many Explained Suggests All Are Explainable (STU, CC)
Dr. Shostak makes the point that, as even UFO buffs acknowledge, most UFO events are quickly explained and get filed in the IFO bin. Dr. Shostak suggests that if 19 out of 20 UFO incidents turn out to be solved as IFOs, then in all probability 20 out of 20 UFO incidents are theoretically solvable, there's just some piece (s) of the puzzle missing preventing that 20th UFO case turning into an IFO.
Mr. Spock of Star Trek fame would probably roast Dr. Shostak over Vulcan coals for logically suggesting that if 19 out of 20 UFO events were not really bona-fide UFOs at all but solved cases, that therefore 20 out of 20 UFO cases would be solved if only X, Y or Z data had been available. Unfortunately, that logic does not follow. If you recover from the flu 19 times in a row, that does not mean that you will recover from flu round # 20. If you hit 19 green traffic lights in a row, that's no guarantee that your 20th traffic light will be green, and the same logic applies to just about any other either / or scenarios. Of special relevance to Dr. Shostak, just because the first 19 interesting SETI signals turn out to be prosaic, mundane and ultimately terrestrial in origin, does not mean # 20 will not be the real extraterrestrial deal, or so I would imagine Dr. Shostak hopes. And I hope he's right. Otherwise, what's the point of carrying on carrying on?
But what would Dr. Shostak think if I adopted the Shostak philosophy on UFO cases and applied it to his profession? Clearly if 19 out of 20 SETI signals are false alarms then all SETI signals are false alarms and Dr. Shostak might as well give up the ghost and permanently retire home to smell the roses.
Motivation (CC, CAH)
Dr. Shostak can not seem to find a real motive (s) for why UFOs (as ET) would want to be here and waste their time out in our galactic boondocks. Some of the obvious candidates as related in sci-fi are apparently off their agenda, given the lapse of time since the 'modern' UFO era 'began – 1947 to date. For example, it's highly unlikely by now that invasion is their motive or have a motivation as in 'take me to your leader' or establishing diplomatic and / or trade relations. The obvious parallel is do wildlife biologists establish these sorts of relationships with elephants (a highly intelligent mammal, unfortunately probably soon to be driven to extinction); do you establish these sorts of relationships with your pet companion animals?
Dr. Shostak notes that it is highly unlikely advanced high-tech aliens are coveting and stealing our technology and industrial secrets. Industrial espionage is not their agenda either though maybe through quirks in their industrial revolution they missed out on smart phones, amplifiers, plastics and the ability to brew beer. Dr. Shostak equally and correctly IMHO notes and that's nicking our natural resources is not on their agenda either as anything Planet Earth has or our solar system has can be found closer to ET's own home. We're not likely to journey to Alpha Centauri for ices or minerals when there is an entire local asteroid belt, Oort Cloud and Kuiper Belt to tap, enough to last humanity a very, very long time.
But there is one resource local to Planet Earth that aliens can not find closer to home and that's terrestrial biochemistry, a resource we exploit for the pharmaceutical industry. Exactly why aliens would want to harvest terrestrial biochemistry is beyond me (maybe for their drug or pharmaceutical needs?) But I'm not prepared to rule it out entirely even if it is a far out in left field. [See also Human-Alien Sex]
Among the other negatives, ET does not appear to be here as missionaries come to promote even ram their alien religious philosophy down our collective throats. ET does not appear to be interested in helping humanity achieve universal peace or provide us with new and improved environmentally friendly technologies, like the key to controllable nuclear fusion.
So what is the motivation of our potential UFO-related aliens? Well, and I'm sure Dr. Shostak can appreciate this, it is SETI! Of course in this case the "S" has been achieved and we're their "ETI". I find it strange that Dr. Shostak does not acknowledge or list the possibility that their motivation is exactly the same as his very own calling card – scientific exploration. In Dr. Shostak's case it is via radio telescopes. In the case of aliens, it is more like the Star Trek scenario – the boldly going scenario that Earthlings can appreciate given our past history of boldly going, finding new lands and new peoples.
Why Now (CC, CAH)
Dr. Shostak asks the very logical question about the UFO / alien presence here on Earth – why now, now being 1947 to date. He means, given the age of our planet and the probability that aliens could come visiting anytime during that interval; it would be highly improbable that it would be 'now'. He correctly points out that unless aliens were already in our neck of the woods (think here the film scenario of Star Trek: First Contact) then UFOs have bugger-all to do with recent (say first half of the 20th Century) human activities since they would have to be too far away to witness same and still get here by 1947.
Dr. Shostak briefly discusses and dismisses the 'ancient astronaut' issue even though it partly answers his own 'why now' objection which is that it defies probability that UFOs would become a presence and a force to be reckoned with just in the last several decades plus. For the here and now, the 'ancient astronaut' issue is another essay for another time but I'll just say I ground the reality of 'ancient astronauts' based on universal mythologies, not archaeology. Sufficient to say that the answer to 'why now' is that the alien presence has been an ever ongoing one (even if token), so it's not just here and 'now'. It's that biosphere argument. We're interesting on an ongoing basis, not just now, not just a quickie visit every million years or so.
Consider an Antarctic penguin seeing his (or her) first human wildlife biologist that's about to abduct, tag, and release it. The penguin might ask 'why now' and gee-whiz are not I 'lucky' to be so special as to have such an advanced being interested in little old me right here and 'now'. Of course the penguin might say 'why me' and 'why now' instead of why not some other penguin from fifty years ago. What the penguin would not know is that humans (and wildlife biologists) have had an ongoing presence in Antarctica for decades and decades. Humans did not arrive in Antarctica just 'now' and there probably really was some other penguin from fifty years past who also asked 'why me' and 'why now' and there might be another penguin fifty years from now who will go through the same 'why me' and 'why now' process.
Evidence (CC)
If there is one phrase or mantra repeated again and again by UFO skeptics is "show me the evidence" for the UFO ETH, though apparently by his own admission there's sufficient evidence to convince some scientists that there really are "alien rocket jockeys" here and now.
Unfortunately, Dr. Shostak has a very narrow definition of what evidence is, and it's not eyewitness testimony – the profession and the quality of the eyewitness is irrelevant, it's not multi-eyewitnesses, it's not radar, it's not eyewitnesses combined with radar, it's not photographs, it's not films, it's not physiological effects or electromagnetic effects or ground traces. One thing and only one things qualifies as really real evidence and that's a physical something that he can put on the slab in his lab. That's it. Pity he could not use that criteria in a courtroom as to what constitutes real evidence.
But that's not the real point. The real UFO issue is that there's more than sufficient evidence that something really, really interesting is going on and ongoing. Maybe it's psychological, maybe it's pathological, maybe it is sociological or a cultural phenomena. Maybe it's human time travelers from our future or maybe it is terrorists (or hippies) lacing our water with hallucinogenic drugs. Maybe it really is ET buzzing our aircraft and / or doing agricultural graffiti and / or abducting Joe and Mary Citizen for Frankenstein-like experiments. But something INTERESTING is going on and scientists, or so I thought, love to investigate INTERESTING things, topics, subjects, whatever.
The Condon Report (STU)
Dr. Shostak loves the USAF sponsored University of Colorado study of UFOs that was done (after quite some considerable difficulty in coming up with an academic institution willing to take the money on offer) under the direction of physicist Edward U. Condon – thus oft referred to as the Condon Study and Condon Report. Post why? It nailed shut the door on the UFO ETH (extraterrestrial hypothesis) and that UFOs had any legit connection with all things scientific. UFOs were pseudoscience; the Condon Report said as much. Therefore, the USAF could bail out of the UFO business (a PR headache) with head held high. Unfortunately, things did not work out quite so cut and dried as Dr. Shostak might have his readers believe.
Dr. Shostak got one thing right (STU) in quoting Dr. Condon in Condon's summary / conclusions preface to the report proper. That is, that summary / conclusions section was entirely all Condon's work. None of his staff saw before-the-fact the conclusions section which were personally Condon's and Condon's alone. The staff only read Condon's conclusions after the entire report had been published. Dr. Shostak neglects to mention the historical and well documented fact that the Condon Study was wracked with internal dissension not the least because Condon had gone public with his anti-UFO conclusions while the study was still in progress.
Dr. Shostak notes that the National Academy of Sciences endorsed the Condon Report, but fails to mention that the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) gave it the thumbs-down, as did the scientific consultant to the USAF's various UFO investigations (Projects Sign, Grudge and Blue Book), the late Dr. J. Allen Hynek. In fact Dr. Shostak seems to have been unaware there ever was a Project Sign and a Project Grudge before Project Blue Book as he only notes the latter (STU). That must have been pointed out to him by someone since Projects Sign and Grudge get a mention in a later book (CAH).
Finally, Dr. Shostak fails to mention that fully 30% of the UFO cases studied by Condon's staff (Condon himself never got his hands dirty with actual on-site investigation) could not be explained and thus remained bona-fide UFOs. Now I wonder why Dr. Shostak did not mention that little tidbit and how that contradicts Condon's own conclusions.
So, perhaps it is not all that surprising that Dr. Shostak drops the mention of Condon from his later UFO coverage (CC, CAH). The light bulb about how bad the Condon Report was probably came on since his first book (STU).
Surveillance: Detection from the Top on Down (STU, CC, CAH)
Dr. Shostak makes an apparently valid point when he notes that all of our surveillance of terra firma via those spy and other satellites like weather satellites, Google Earth images, all that massive 24/7 surveillance coverage from the top (space) down (ground level) has not reveled diddly-squat in terms of spotting any UFOs. Conclusion: there are no UFOs to spot! Well one can ignore the spy military surveillance since anything unusual detected could be, probably should be, classified. As to the rest, well there's a relatively easy answer – stealth technology. If you know enough physics to cross interstellar space, you know enough physics to adapt physical principles into stealth technologies if it is to your advantage to do so and given the human track record of shoot-first-and-ask-questions-afterwards stealth technology It is a wise precaution. If you can use stealth technologies to absorb radar photons (make yourself invisible to radar) you can adapt that sort of high-tech to absorb light photons (make yourself invisible to the eye, the camera, etc.) By analogy, terrestrial stealth technologies and ever ongoing R & D of stealth technologies are part and parcel of every advanced military nation (the US, Russia, China, etc.). Nations are using and are working on stealth technologies, and not necessarily 100% towards military applications. Law enforcement makes use of such advancements too. So, if we do stealth technology, why not ET?
But just because commercial satellites have apparently not photographed UFOs (have all images been examined in exacting detail with that objective in mind?) Does not mean UFOs do not exist. UFOs are not a fixed feature on the landscape, unlike say the pyramids at Giza or Easter Island. Any UFO would have to be in exactly the right spot at exactly the right time and that's relatively unlikely as the numbers of alien craft are probably very few and far between. What? Multi-thousands of eyewitness sightings and there are just a few craft? Yes! Subtract all those IFOs from the UFOs and then note that one craft could be witnessed hundreds of times over the many decades. There are vastly more sightings of aircraft than there are aircraft since one aircraft can be witnessed multi-thousands upon thousands of time over the lifetime of that aircraft. If there were only a dozen or so bona-fide UFOs shared around the globe what odds one will be in the right place at the right time to have its picture taken by a satellite?
Roswell, July 1947 (STU, CC, CAH)
Dr. Shostak is a Roswell skeptic, at least so far as ET is concerned. What Dr. Shostak does not answer or otherwise come to terms with is how experienced military officers (plural) could mistake balloon materials (weather or Mogul) for a metallic crashed 'flying disk'. I maintain they could not make that oops. I would maintain that Dr. Shostak himself could distinguish between the two and he's no military officer in the air force or a balloon expert. I'd expect even the little old lady from Pasadena would detect the difference. In fact the discovery of any bit of balloon material in that Roswell debris would give the game away immediately. See also my comments on government cover-ups / censorship above. Dr. Shostak also made a minor mistake in attributing the Roswell incident as involving USAF instead of USAAF (Army Air Force) personnel (STU).
As related above, Dr. Shostak wants hard physical stuff to place on the slab-in-the-lab. That's the only evidence he will accept for the UFO ETH. The only bona-fide UFO case we know of for absolute certain involving hard physical stuff is Roswell. Since Dr. Shostak acknowledges that Roswell is associated with hard physical evidence that's testable on the slab-in-the-lab (that Roswell debris or wreckage), perhaps he could politely ask the USAF to loan him some of those Roswell bits and pieces for his analysis since he knows the debris exists. Where is the Roswell wreckage now and why can not Dr. Shostak be loaned some?
Of course Dr. Shostak, if successful, would have to take it on pure faith and trust that he'd be getting the Right Stuff; the Real Deal; the Real McCoy to test. Not a given I'd suspect.
Project Mogul (STU, CAH)
Dr. Shostak has swallowed hook, line and proverbial sinker the new and improved 1995 USAF explanation for the July 1947 Roswell incident and debris. It was a Top Secret Project Mogul balloon (just a variation or upgrade on the previous weather balloon explanation). However, even that massive (lots of unnecessary filler of no relevance) 1995 USAF report pointing the Project Mogul finger at Roswell could only conclude that a Mogul balloon or balloon train was the most likely maybe explanation. The 1995 USAF report could not provide any actual evidence that Roswell WAS a Mogul balloon. Thus, the Roswell case is still open, although Dr. Shostak would have us apparently believe otherwise.
Roswell: Reverse Engineering (STU, CC, CAH)
Dr. Shostak maintains that if Roswell were true, that the powers-that-be actually obtained real extraterrestrial materials and thus alien technologies, that America should be light years ahead of the rest of the world in high-tech, especially aerospace technologies, since those powers -that-be would have reversed engineered those alien technologies and put them to American use – good old American know-how strikes again. Of course Dr. Shostak assumes we could actually reverse engineer alien technologies, but that is not a given. One hundred plus years ago, even a team of Alexander Graham Bell, Thomas Edison, Nikola Tesla and Guglielmo Marconi could not have reverse engineered today's ever present Smart Phone.
I quite agree with Dr. Shostak however that lasers and fiber optics and the transistor, etc. were human inventions and not reverse engineered from alien technologies despite some claims to the contrary by some UFO buffs. Even UFO buffs can go a bit over-the-top with their claims.
Abductions (STU, CC, CAH)
If you stop and think about this abduction facet rationally, you'll see a parallel with our own wildlife biologists who often (via a trap or a tranquiller dart) capture, transport, examine, measure, take samples (blood, tissues, etc. ), tag, then transport back and release their wildlife specimens. Substitute aliens for wildlife biologists and humans for wildlife, and it makes scientific sense. Why millions of humans? Is not that overkill? Why do we do unmentionable things to millions of lab rats and fruit flies? Is not that overkill too?
Human-Alien Sex (STU)
Dr. Shostak notes that in the UFO abduction literature there is an emphasis on sex and reproduction and that from a biological point of view, this is as absurd as a pussy cat mating with a petunia.
Well actually the sex or reproduction referred to is not really akin to what happens in human bedrooms, on top of the kitchen table or in the back seats of automobiles. It's more akin to what happens in fertility clinics. The scenario is more like aliens manipulating human eggs and sperm and genetic material that's been removed from their unwilling human hosts than actual alien-human intercourse. Admittedly, this is still pretty far out stuff and one is hard pressed to come up with an alien motive for this behavior. What could the motivation really be? I do not profess to understand this, but I can point out that we have a lot of trouble understanding motivation at times in our fellow life forms. I'm damned if I can comprehend at times what goes on in that brain thingy that's housed between my pet cat's ears. On the flip side of that coin, probably 95% of what I do is no doubt unexplainable and meaningless to the felines. Trying to comprehend alien motivations when it's difficult to come to terms with our companion animals' behavior is fraught with danger.
My Personal Conclusions
IMHO, Dr. Shostak has a rather shallow comprehension of the entire UFO issue and I doubt that he has really studied the field. He apparently has not gotten his hands dirty doing any actual onsite fieldwork and interviewing witnesses and doing photographic analysis. Further, based on his written works, I do not believe he has adequately thought through many of the various facets of the phenomena and how those jigsaw puzzle pieces might fit together.
Dr. Shostak might argue that it's not his job to be on top of the UFO topic and research same, but I suggest otherwise if for no other reason than to play fair with the great unwashed that go to him for advice and information on the subject. It is his job if he is going to write and speak on the subject for the public's consumption and voice professional opinions for their benefit.
I get the impression that he uses his public profile and his scientific authority as a senior astronomer to convincingly wax lyrical on a subject to Joe and Mary Citizen who know less about UFOs that he does and who are not by nature skeptical enough or knowledgeable enough to think the issue through themselves. We tend to rely on authority figures to tell us what's what.
Finally, to end on a positive note, Dr. Shostak has made some valid points as related above; he has put his 'money' where his mouth is and been willing to engage politely in dialog with those who hold alternate worldviews.
* If SETI detects a radio signal (s) confirming the existence of ET, that's unlikely in the extreme to be censored or covered-up.
Bibliographic Details:
Shostak, Seth; Sharing the Universe: Perspectives on Extraterrestrial Life; Berkeley Hills Books, Berkeley, California; 1998:
Shostak, Seth & Barnett, Alex; Cosmic Company: The Search for Life in the Universe; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK; 2003:
Shostak, Seth; Confessions of An Alien Hunter: A Scientist's Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence; National Geographic, Washington, DC; 2009:
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Source: http://ezinearticles.com/?Seth-Shostak-On-UFOs:-Some-Commentary&id=8370186
