John Ternus hosts his first earnings call as Apple’s chief executive on Monday, and the test is not really about the quarter that just ended. Analysts already have a fairly clear picture of July through September. The test is about what comes next: a holiday quarter stuffed with new hardware, a memory market that is squeezing margins, and a revamped Siri that still has to prove itself against rivals that move faster.
Apple reports its fiscal fourth quarter results on Monday, November 2. According to LSEG data cited by Reuters, analysts expect revenue of $113.39 billion, up nearly 11 percent from a year earlier, and net profit of $29.04 billion, up about 6 percent. That profit growth, if it lands as expected, would be Apple’s weakest in six quarters, and the reason is not weak demand. It is cost.
What analysts expect, in one table
| Measure | Expected | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $113.39 billion | Up nearly 11 percent year on year |
| Net profit | $29.04 billion | Up about 6 percent, the slowest profit growth in six quarters |
| iPhone sales | $56.54 billion | Up about 15 percent, slowing from 22 percent the prior quarter |
| Services revenue | $31.56 billion | Up almost 10 percent, the slowest pace in more than three years |
Those iPhone numbers need context. The quarter captures just nine days of sales of the new iPhone 18 Pro models, which launched late in the period. The iPhone Duo, Apple’s first foldable, arrived on October 23, so its sales fall almost entirely into the current holiday quarter. In other words, Monday’s report is a warm-up. The December quarter is the main event.
Ternus inherited a launch blitz, not a quiet quarter
Ternus took over from Tim Cook in September, and he did not get a gentle start. Under his watch Apple has introduced its first foldable phone, a smart home hub, and its first touchscreen laptops, all of which began shipping during the current fiscal first quarter. The touchscreen MacBook Pro, which starts at $2,899 and ships November 6, is the most visible example of a product line Apple had resisted for years suddenly changing direction.
Investors will listen for how Ternus talks about that blitz. Cook was famous for supply chain discipline and careful guidance. Ternus, an engineer by background, will be judged on whether he can keep that discipline while shipping more new product categories in one quarter than Apple usually manages in a year.
Memory costs are the story behind the profit slowdown
Cook had already warned of what he called a “100-year flood” of rising memory costs, and the evidence since then has only strengthened. Samsung, the world’s largest memory maker, said its 2027 high-bandwidth memory supply is already sold out at agreed prices, with customers asking for more than contracts cover. Samsung is spending $63 billion to add capacity, yet its July to September operating profit of 107.4 trillion won, up 783 percent year on year, shows just how tight and how profitable the memory market has become.
That tightness is why OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman spent October 31 in South Korea meeting about 50 Samsung affiliate presidents, and reportedly SK Group leaders as well, to talk about memory supply for its Stargate data center plans. When the world’s biggest AI lab has to fly to Seoul to secure chips, it is no surprise that a phone maker feels the same pressure in its bill of materials.
For Apple, the question is how much of that cost it absorbs and how much eventually reaches buyers. So far Apple has held its headline prices, but memory is in almost everything it sells, from iPhones to Macs to the new home hub. Analysts expect that pressure to show up first in margins, not in price tags.
The iPhone Duo question Ternus cannot dodge
Remarks on Duo sales will be scrutinized, Reuters reported, and for good reason. Some early buyers reported cracks and lines along the inner display’s central fold, prompting Apple to offer replacements. Yet demand has not cooled. IDC analyst Nabila Popal expects demand to keep exceeding supply despite the screen problems, and Bank of America estimates Duo buyers face average delivery waits of 79 days, with shipments stretching into January.
That combination, a flaw and a waiting list, is unusual. It suggests the Duo’s problem is manufacturing and durability at scale, not desirability. Apple has already been replacing cracked displays, but it has not said what is breaking them, and investors will want to know whether the fix is a process change, a design change, or simply more careful handling of a first-generation product. Readers who own one should check our earlier coverage of the hinge cracking reports and Apple’s replacement offer.
Siri AI and the services slowdown
The third issue on the call is AI, and specifically the revamped Siri. Apple has positioned its AI systems for everyday users rather than Silicon Valley insiders, a contrast Reuters draws with Meta’s Muse agent, which took App Store rankings by storm in recent weeks. Dan Morgan, a portfolio manager at Synovus Trust, put the gap bluntly: recent agentic innovation far outpaces the experience of Siri AI, though Apple argues its assistant is far more focused on trust and privacy.
That framing will be tested by the numbers. Services, the business that includes the App Store, iCloud, and subscriptions, is expected to grow almost 10 percent to $31.56 billion, its slowest pace in more than three years. Apple is also suing OpenAI over alleged trade-secret theft, while OpenAI and others build devices aimed at displacing the iPhone as the central device in people’s lives. How Apple embraces AI, Reuters notes, could have large implications for that services business.
Meanwhile, Apple Intelligence finally has a date in China, with testing starting November 4 and Alibaba’s Qwen model inside Siri, as we reported in this morning’s batch. That rollout, due in full with iOS 27.3 in December, is a reminder that Apple’s AI story is now global in a way Siri’s original launch never was.
What to watch on the call
Three answers matter more than the headline numbers. First, the holiday-quarter outlook: does Apple guide to the usual December surge, or does memory cost and Duo supply temper it? Second, Duo supply: will Apple commit to a date when wait times fall below a month? Third, Siri: does Ternus give a concrete timeline or capability update, or stick to the trust and privacy framing?
If Apple beats the $113.39 billion revenue estimate but guides cautiously for December, the market will read that as a memory story. If it guides strongly despite those costs, it will read as a sign that the product blitz, from the Duo to the touchscreen MacBook Pro, is strong enough to carry the margin hit. Either way, Monday is the first time investors hear Ternus explain Apple’s future in his own words, and that, more than any single number, is why this call matters.
Sources: Reuters, via syndication, November 2, 2026; Samsung earnings materials and executive remarks, October 2026; Bank of America and IDC analyst comments cited by Reuters.
