“You want me to take all of them?” asked Matthew. The eight kids in the scout troop that I led regarded me like I was stark raving mad.
Looking back, I realize that I was making my first all-in bet at 13. It was in a game of flag at the annual Wilderness Scout camp. Three scout troops were given three flags apiece. The other three were assigned to track a troop that had flags and wrest it from them. Whoever had the most flags at the end won.
Now, there was a good reason for me to make my all-in bet.
Matthew, the fastest runner in our school, was in my troop. He regularly beat the bigger kids. Giving all three flags to him was a no-brainer.
Everyone else split their flags among their troop, figuring that even if one person got caught, at least one of the others would get through.
However, I believed that the key to us winning the flag contest was speed, since I had the fastest runner in the school in my troop.
So I went all in and gave all three flags to Matthew.
This was before cellphones. I didn’t know how my bet panned out till we got back to camp hours later.
Now, making big bets isn’t for everyone. However, when you see someone betting big, you should pay attention to why they’re doing it. Most of the time, you’re going to find that wise, big bettors are good at maximizing their advantage.
For me in scout camp, it was speed. In financial markets, the advantage that wise, big bettors have is information and understanding of the potential of an idea. And one big bettor that I’m closely watching right now is Masayoshi Son.
Follow the Big Money
On Monday, Japanese billionaire investor and visionary Masayoshi Son agreed to buy ARM Holdings, a computer-chip design firm, for $32 billion.
This is a massive bet even for Son, and the biggest of his career so far. In fact, $32 billion represents almost 50% of SoftBank, which is a holding company, like Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, that Son is using to buy ARM Holdings. This cash deal also represents the largest investment ever from Asia into the U.K.
And at the heart of this big deal is something I’ve been writing about for many months now – the Internet of Things.
ARM Holdings licenses its computer-chip designs for a fee. And the company is a free agent – it’ll do it for anyone who needs to put a chip into anything. ARM currently has its tech in smartphones, including Apple’s iPhone, but the company is also positioned to see its chips go into more and more devices, such as cars, sensors and household appliances.
As I’ve been telling you, the Internet of Things is a mega tech trend that’s going to connect 50 billion devices by 2020 and generate $19 trillion in value.
Don’t Miss the Internet of Things Trend
One way to get some exposure to the Internet of Things trend is by purchasing shares of the Van Eck Semiconductor ETF (NYSE Arca: SMH).
Nothing wrong with a 10% gain in less than a month. However, this ETF simply won’t give you the phenomenal upside of the Internet of Things trend. That’s because there are quite a few companies in this ETF that won’t benefit from the Internet of Things trend.
And my Internet of Things all-in bet wouldn’t be the first to pay off. My all-in bet from scout camp paid off. Matthew delivered all three flags, and our scout troop won.