One week after the iPhone Duo went on sale, the foldable market has a new favorite for second place, and it is Apple. TrendForce’s latest report, published October 28, forecasts Apple capturing 29.8% of the global foldable smartphone market in 2027, just behind Samsung at 31.9% and ahead of Huawei at 21.3%. For a company that entered the category on October 23, that is a remarkable projection. It is also, for now, only a projection.
The numbers behind it tell a story of a market that was stalling until Apple showed up. TrendForce expected Apple to ship 5 million Duos by the end of 2026, good for 24.8% of the segment, in a year when the overall foldable market grows just 0.5% and shipments from Android brands alone fall by more than 20% year over year. In 2027, the firm expects the market to reach 23.5 million shipments, up 16.3%, with Apple’s entry driving growth through better foldable technology and new AI use cases.
The 2027 foldable leaderboard, as TrendForce sees it
| Brand | 2026 share | 2027 share |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung | 35.1% | 31.9% |
| Apple | 24.8% | 29.8% |
| Huawei | 24.8% | 21.3% |
Samsung stays first, but its lead narrows from more than 10 points to barely 2. Huawei, which tied Apple in 2026 on TrendForce’s numbers, slides to third. The shift is not just about one phone. TrendForce argues Apple’s advantage is integration: its own chips, its operating system, and its developer ecosystem, applied to a form factor where app compatibility has been the weak link for years. Our own review roundup found the same split, with remarkable hardware and apps that are not ready yet.
What could still break the forecast
Three things stand between TrendForce’s forecast and reality, and all three are already visible. First, supply. The Duo sold out in minutes in Korea and US delivery estimates slipped to January 2027 within days of pre-orders opening, as we covered in our Korea launch report. A forecast of 5 million units by year end assumes Apple can actually build and ship them.
Second, durability. Days after launch, owners reported inner screens cracking along the hinge, and Apple confirmed a small number of units are affected, offering free replacements without requiring AppleCare+. Our owners guide to the cracking reports lays out what to do if your screen fails, but a first-generation hardware issue is exactly the kind of thing that cools mainstream buyers, even if the absolute numbers stay small.
Third, the second wave. Twenty-eight more countries get the Duo on October 30, which will test both demand and Apple’s replacement logistics outside its launch markets. Resale prices already tell you how tight supply is: an eBay scrape found average asking prices around $4,188 across listings, more than double the $1,999 starting retail price, with 2TB models asking $5,355 on average. Asking prices are not completed sales, but they are a good thermometer for scarcity.
Why Samsung should still worry
Samsung pioneered this category and spent seven years working out what a foldable is. Its response to the Duo, an ad campaign positioning its own foldables as years ahead, is itself a sign of how the conversation has changed. Samsung is no longer explaining foldables to skeptics. It is defending its lead against a rival that, in TrendForce’s telling, could nearly match it within a year of entering.
The deeper shift is what TrendForce flags at the end of its report: competition moving from form-factor innovation toward multitasking efficiency. That is a fight Apple is built for, because it is about software, ecosystem, and chip integration rather than hinge engineering alone. If Duo apps catch up to Duo hardware in 2027, and if the screen issue stays contained, 29.8% stops looking bold. If either fails, Samsung keeps its crown and Apple’s first foldable becomes a premium niche, not a market reshaper. The next data point arrives fast: the October 30 wave, and whether January delivery estimates start coming forward or slip further.
Sources: TrendForce via 9to5Mac, MacRumors, Bloomberg, iFixit.
