New England Odds 4:1

Vegas have installed the Pats as the 4:1 favorite this year to win the Superbowl. They are basing this on the assumption of the complete recovery of Tom Brady. He is the difference maker. It will be interesting to see how he responds to the pressure after the knee reconstructive surgery. Football is not like golf, where it appears Tiger Woods has made a complete recovery, notwithstanding zero major’s, Tiger is having a great year. But Tiger does not have eleven great and sometimes huge athletes bearing down on him trying to take his head off. The question is will he be able to put the injury behind him or will he develop happy feet.

I don’t think the Pats are the team to beat. They are aging at key positions. Bruschi, Moss, Taylor, Walker, are great players but they are getting past their prime. Sure you can draft replacements. But there is always a drop off. You just don’t replace a Bruschi. You think you do but you don’t. You win 3 Superbowls with a guy. You won them because of him and players like him.

I still don’t understand the mystique surrounding the Pats. Conventional wisdom has them as one of the best teams ever, give me a break they won 3 Superbowls by 9 points total. If not for the stupid call against Oakland they would not have been in the bowl against the Rams. A play here or there and they would be there with buffalo at 0-4 in Superbowls.

Pittsburgh Steelers Odds 7-1

Let’s see they win Superbowl 40 and Ben Roethlisberger almost gets killed on a motorcycle. They win last year and Ben is charged with assault. We learned today that the woman charging Ben with assault may be lying. She supposedly bragged to a co-worker that she hooked up with Ben. It looks like this distraction will be dealt with and should not affect his season.

The word is that the complacency following 40 has not occurred this year. Plus they knew coach Cowher was in his last year and he did not seem to have the motivation.

I pick the Steelers to repeat as AFC and Superbowl champs. I know they luckily pulled the game out against Arizona but the only thing the Steelers lacked last year was the ability to gain ½ yard when they needed it. If they had that score would have been 35-14. Their 1 pick last year Medenhall got hurt and never got a chance to play. Willy parker is a great runner but he is not a Steelers runner. The Steelers need a guy that gets them 3 yards on first down and 3 yards on 2nd down and can get ½ yard when you need it. Parker gives you zero on first and zero on second so you are always 3rd and long, unless of course he breaks one for 10. That is not Steeler football. If Medenhall is the player they thought he would be and with the addition of the tank Frank Summers the running game should be fine.

Heinz Ward is getting a little older but Santonio Holmes has developed into a world class receiver. Despite his drops last year Limus Sweed will be a great addition. The Steelers always have a way of bringing players along slowly Big Ben being the exception.

Defense should be great again. Lost Larry Foote an exceptional player but word id Timmons is having a great camp and may become a dominant player. They are returning 20 of 21 players that one the Superbowl.

NY Giants Odds 9-1

Giants gave Eli the big contract this weekend. I think he deserves it. I like Eli better than Peyton. Peyton has always been a sissy when there is a rush. Giants have great running game and solid defense. Good enough to get them to the playoffs. However no Plaxico leaves huge hole. Plax is the guy the opposition plans their defense around. You saw the difference in Eli’s production after Plax shot himself in the leg. Caveat on this pick is if Eli tries too hard to prove he deserves the money. He appears to be a calm kid and it had to be tough always being in Peyton’s and Archie’s shadow. I knew they were going to upset the Pats in the Superbowl when I heard his mother said she has never seen Eli smile so much as he did going into the Superbowl. Giants need to find a receiver to offset the loss of Plax. If they do that they could be playing the Steelers in Superbowl.

Dallas Cowboys Odds 11-1

Jerry Jones must have ESPN and the rest of the sportscaster world on his payroll. I have never seen so much praise for a team and a quarterback that have not accomplished anything. If I were a conspiracy theorist I would think the NFL is in cahoots with the media to build up the Cowboys. Similar to the NBA’s needing the Lakers in the playoffs. They must feel it’s good for the league. Romo is an average quarterback. He is not the second coming of Elway. He is not an elite QB. Surround him with good players and a solid defense and he will win some games. For him to win a Superbowl he will need great players and a great defense. Dallas will make the playoffs and should win the division only because Washington is not there and Philly may be on decline. Playoffs are as far as Dallas goes.

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